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Global Carbon Fiber Production Nameplate Capacity vs. Actual Output Table 1 Year Nameplate Capacity Table 4 Actual Output Knockdown metric tonnes Year 2012 (est.) 111,785 67,071 60% 2016 (est.) 156,845 106,655 68% 2020 (est.) 169,300 121,896 72% Global Carbon Fiber Production, by Tow Size, 2012-2020 Small Tow (3k-24k) Large Tow (>24k) Total metric tonnes* Table 2 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2019 7,800 9,220 11,550 13,090 13,670 14,340 16,260 18,100 44,640 124,485 94,345 46,200 140,545 101,645 48,700 150,345 106,145 50,700 156,845 2017 109,145 51,700 160,845 111,145 52,700 163,845 2020 metric tonnes Aerospace 79,845 2015 2018 111,785 2016 2017 39,640 2014 Global Carbon Fiber Production Demand, by Market, 2012-2020 72,145 2013 Market 2012 19,570 10,280 10,530 11,110 11,790 12,410 12,770 13,110 13,730 2018 Industrial 29,430 33,060 38,370 43,280 49,280 51,380 58,130 63,100 69,160 2019 113,145 53,700 166,845 87,160 94,310 102,460 2020 115,600 53,700 169,300 Consumer 9,990 Total 47,220 52,560 60,450 67,480 74,740 78,130 Global Carbon Fiber Production Demand, by Fiber Form, 2012-2020* Table 3 Market 2012 2013 2014 2015 Woven Fabric 20,770 24,220 28,840 32,590 Thermoset UD Prepreg 42,420 45,950 49,300 52,950 Thermoset Fabric Prepreg 36,330 41,190 49,850 Thermoplastic Prepreg 6,830 9,010 Raw Fiber 19,990 21,240 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 36,880 38,470 43,690 47,630 53,640 57,280 61,160 66,210 71,000 76,470 56,960 61,400 62,780 69,390 74,290 78,640 9,460 11,280 13,070 14,100 18,830 23,830 27,340 24,880 27,000 30,440 31,760 35,870 37,140 40,770 Molding Compounds 25,070 26,150 30,450 34,840 38,960 40,630 41,290 44,850 44,580 Total 151,410 167,760 192,780 215,620 238,030 248,900 275,280 298,740 321,440 *Weight figures for the converted fiber forms charted in Table 3 include resin weight in the case of prepregs. small tow will account for 106,145 metric tonnes (>233.0 million lb), and large tow, will account for 50,700 metric tonnes (>111.7 million lb). By 2020 (Red characterizes this as highly speculative), the global nameplate capacity will be 169,300 metric tonnes (>350.9 million lb). Small tow will make up 115,600 metric tonnes (>254.8 million lb);, and large tow, 53,700 metric tonnes (>118.3 million lb). Tempering these figures is the caveat associated with any discussion about carbon fiber manufacture: knockdown. This is the difference between the nameplate capacity of a carbon fiber line and its actual production capacity. Actual output is always smaller due to inefficiencies in the manufacturing process. The good news is that Red expects manufacturing efficiency to increase substantially over the next decade. For 2012, he estimates efficiency was about 60 percent. By 2016, that number jumps to 68 percent, and by 2020, it could reach 72 percent. This means, of course, that a global nameplate capacity of 109,635 metric tonnes (> 241.7 million lb) in 2012 represents 65,781 metric tonnes (> 145 million lb) of actual carbon fiber. On the demand side of the market, Red says the 2012 global carbon fiber demand in all markets was 47,220 metric tonnes (>104.1 million lb). By 2016, that number is expected to increase to 74,740 metric tonnes (>145 million lb) and then rise to 102,460 metric tonnes (>145 million lb) by 2020. Even with knockdown factored in, the 2016 demand will fall short of actual supply by about 25,000 metric tonnes (>145 million lb). And in 2020, the demand will fall short of actual supply by about 12,000 metric tonnes (>26.4 million lb). Behind the numbers The market forces that drive carbon fiber supply and demand are numerous and complicated, as Red quickly admits. It's evident, however, that a few indicators, with little change, have the capacity to substantially shift the carbon fiber market. Topping the list is the automotive market, which appears to be in the early stages of a long-term and substantial increase in the application of carbon fiber to structural and semistructural production vehicle components. Several presentations at Carbon Fiber 2012 touched on manufacturing processes that, with additional fine-tuning, could move March 2013 | 47 Source: composites Forecasts and consulting LLc metric tonnes