High-Performance Composites is read by qualified composites industry professionals in the fields of continuous carbon fiber and other high-performance composites as well as the associated end-markets of aerospace, military, and automotive.
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MARKET TRENDS MARKET TRENDS Ross Kozarsky is a senior analyst and the leader of the Lux Research (Boston, Mass.) Advanced Materials team. He provides strategic advice on, and ongoing intelligence about, emerging coating, composite and catalyst materials that serve as enabling technologies for new markets and applications in industries ranging from oil and gas to electronics. He has advised large multinationals, investment firms and government agencies on strategic innovation decisions in domains such as transportation, lightweighting, energy security and nanotechnology. Kozarsky also has presented at conferences in Asia, Europe and North America on topics that include carbon fiber composites. Previously, he worked as a chemical engineer at Solexant (San jose, Calif.). He holds a Ph.M in advanced chemical engineering from the university of Cambridge and a BSE in chemical engineering from Princeton university. I n my role as an analyst who helps clients ���nd new business opportunities in emerging technologies, I have scouted a wide range of advanced materials that span the ���innovation funnel,��� from the invention and prototyping stages all the way through production. For the automotive and aerospace markets, both of which are dynamically expanding, my ���rm has targeted several technologies: carbon ���ber composites, nanocrystalline metals, such as magnesium, and ��� in my opinion, the dark horse ��� additive manufacturing. First recognized and used in 1879 by Thomas Edison as the ���lament in light bulbs, carbon ���ber is progressing along the development path. Since the advent of polyacrylonitrile (PAN) precursor in the 1960s, the application of high-strength carbon ���bers has grown Source: Lux Research OPTiMiziNg MATERiALS SELECTiON iN AuTOMOTivE AND AEROSPACE STRuCTuRES AHSS, Al, Mg, Ti and CFRP all have bene���ts and drawbacks BiggeST BeneFiTS BiggeST OBSTACleS AHSS Cost Availability Manufacturing compatibility Welding Ductility Providing Class A fnish Al Cost Availability Light weight Forming Corrosion Low melting point and high CTE Mg Light weight Damping Hightemperature performance Availability Ductility Corrosion Ti Tensile strength Environmental resistance Compatibility with composites Cost Diffculties in machining High scrap rates CFRP Light weight Part consolidation Corrosion resistance Cost Throughput 3-D performance AHSS = advanced, high-strength steel Al = aluminum CFRP = carbon fber-reinforced polymer Mg = magnesium Ti = titanium Comparison matrix: Benefits & drawbacks of competing materials The car of the future will be a multimaterial construction in which composites and advanced metals will be combined to achieve the best performance/cost balance. markedly, from sporting goods to aircraft structures to automotive chassis and body panels. At present, the cost of ���ber prevents widespread adoption. Absent an alternative precursor or faster, less-expensive thermal treatment technologies, ���ber cost will gradually increase, due to rising operating expenses. But I believe that lower-cost ���ber is possible in the near-term based on ongoing work by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL, Oak Ridge, Tenn.) in collaboration with SGL-The Carbon Co. (Wiesbaden, Germany) on textile-grade PAN precursors. In the long term, ORNL���s work with Ford Motor Co. (Dearborn, Mich.) and Dow Automotive (Auburn Hills, Mich.) on polyole���n-based precursors should yield more dramatic cost reductions. As emerging technologies come online, in precursor, oxidation and car- bonization, best-in-class carbon ���ber costs will fall to around $11/kg ($5/lb) by 2017. With more competitive pricing, the total carbon ���ber-reinforced polymer (CFRP) market will reach $36 billion by 2020, with aerospace at $14.4 billion and the automotive sector growing to $2.7 billion. Despite dif���culties, lignin precursor-based carbon ���ber will continue to receive attention, and I believe that CFRPs that employ thermoplastic resins will grow and be more widely applied. That said, those who deal in advanced metals are not watching idly as carbon ���ber composites move to increase their share in aerospace and automotive ��� the metals industry also is innovating. Fig. 1, which illustrates a matrix of advanced metals and CFRP, demonstrates both the ben- jANuARy 2013 | 7